So, wow… no big skating competitions until October… SO WHY NOT MAKE SH*T UP?!

We’ve got 3 spots each for the ladies and dance, and two each for pairs and men. So lets break it down in that order.

LADIES:

After a very good showing at worlds, I think that both Ashley Wagner and Gracie Gold are well on their way to making their first Olympic teams. Additionally, if Gold continues to advance artistically, I think they both have a shot at a top-5 placing in Sochi.

The third spot, IMHO, is where the competition really heats up. The way I see it, you’ve got three key players - Christina Gao, Mirai Nagasu, and Agnes Zawadski - along with a couple up-and-comers with an outside chance (Courtney Hicks and Yasmin Siraj come to mind) and two skaters looking to return from time off (Alissa Czisny and Rachel Flatt). Ultimately, I think it will come down to Gao and Zawadski, and I think Gao will come out on top.

Prediction: Wagner, Gold, Gao

DANCE:

Really, there isn’t much competition here. Davis and White are the class of the world, Chock and Bates were extremely well-received by the international community at Worlds, and the Shibutanis are a solid and world-class team.

Prediction: Davis/White, Chock/Bates, Shibutani/Shibutani

PAIRS:

With Denny and Coughlin returning from his hip surgery, I think they’ll reassert themselves at the top of the US pairs ladder. I think the real battle will be for the second spot, probably between Scimeca/Knierim and  Castelli/Shnapir, and I think that Scimeca/Knierim will come out on top. They’re a pair with a whole lot of upside and not much downside, and their top-10 placement at Worlds was a stellar debut.

Prediction: Denny/Coughlin, Scimeca/Knierim (bronze: Castelli/Shnapir)

MEN:

I saved this for last because its frankly pretty wide open. In alphabetical order, I think Aaron, Abbott, Dornbush, Farris, Johnson, Miner, and Rippon have a shot at making the team, and throw possible returners Lysacheck and Weir into the pot and you’ve got yourself one hell of a competition for two Olympic berths.

I can’t help but think that Abbott, who is returning to his sublime Exogenesis freeskate and who is working with the equally-sublime Robin Cousins on his short has an excellent shot at making the team. Exogenesis is such an excellent program that it has a 10-point components advantage over all of the other skaters in the field (not counting Lysachek- we havent seen anything from him in 4 years, lord knows what he’s capable of), and I’d wager he’ll spend a whole lot of his long off-season perfecting his quad toe. If Abbott can get his 4T consistent, I think he’s one of a very small number of skaters capable of stopping Patrick Chan’s seemingly predestined run at Olympic gold, due in large part to his component scores.

Max Aaron had quite the breakout year, and I’d guess that he’s the co-front-runner with Abbott for the Sochi team. Clearly, he has the jumps to be world class, and his artistic growth between nationals and worlds was significant. Hopefully Coach Tom finds a way to let him score some higher components while maintaining his technical edge.

I think Joshua Farris represents the future of the US men’s team, and it frankly wouldn’t surprise me if he got one of the two spots - he’s a complete skater - quad, triples, spins, choreography - plus that X factor that skaters crave- he seems to float above the ice, as opposed to laboring on it.

Of course, those picks don’t take into account the unknowns of Evan and Johnny, although I think Weir’s best competitions are behind him. As for Evan? Lord knows. 

Prediction: Abbott, Aaron (bronze: Lysachek)

Well kids, there you have it. How confident am I in my predictions? 99.9% confident in dance, 75% confident in pairs, 60% confident in ladies, and maybe 45% confident in men’s. Only time will tell, but if I run the board at Nationals, I expect a fabulous shoutout from Jackie Wong on twitter :-)

Its Bobby again kiddos, and the time has come…  the big show!

THE 2013 WORLD FIGURE SKATING CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!!!

I’m literally trembling with excitement.  So, without further ado, I give you the 5RC Worlds predictions (NOW WITH CHARTS!)

Ta-DAAAA!  Bask in its majesty!

A few notables:

• I think 5RC-unofficial-sweetheart Javier Fernandez is going to win the men’s even, boldly putting Spain on the figure skating map!
• Ashley Wagner will win her first world medal, and the US’s first ladies world medal since 2006, when Kimmie Meisner and Sasha Cohen went 1 & 3 (sweet jesus that was 7 years ago… lord i’m old.)
• The Canadians will end up on the pairs podium. Their program has been on the rise for years, and they totally deserve it.
• Meryl and Charlie will best Tessa and Scott.  This will happen, or else there is no justice in the world, because D&W’s programs are out-of-this-world amazing.

And a few comments on how this leads into the Sochi Olympic year:

• Japan retains 3 entries in the men’s event. This is pretty much a lock. Canada just barely keeps its 3rd spot, and the USA keeps its two with a strong first showing by Max Aaron. 
• Again, Japan retains 3 spots. If you look closely at the ladies event, and do some quick math… yup. I’ve predicted that both the USA and Italy will gain a third spot in the ladies competition for the Olympic year.
• 3 Pair teams each for Russia, Canada, and China. USA keeps 2.
• 3 Dance spots again for USA, Canada, and Russia. 

That leaves the USA with 3 ladies, 2 men, 2 pairs, and 3 dance spots for Sochi… not bad!

And here are the medal counts!

Not too shabby - a good international distribution - 4 in Asia, 4 in North America, and 4 in Europe. 

So what do you think? Agree? Disagree?

The IOC has voted to remove wrestling from the list of Olympic core sports, effective as of the 2020 games.  

Wrestling is one of the original modern Olympic sports, and was in fact among the sports in the ancient Greek Olympics.

More info can be found here.

Really, we here at 5RC are going to miss wrestling for many reasons… maaaaaany reasons…

Bobby here!

We’re just two weeks away from US Nationals in Omaha, NE, so I figured it was time to update my prognostiskating (see what I did there again?) about who will make the world team this year.  Remember, we’ve got 3 dance teams, and two each of men, ladies, and pair teams.  To see my original predictions, click here!

I’ve again broken the fields down to four respective categories: Locks (guaranteed to make it); Contenders (a good shot to make it); Dark Horses (outside shots to make it); and Wild Cards (you know what that means i assume).

AND LOOK I MADE ANOTHER GRAPH!

My predictions to make the team are highlighted in red.

You’ll notice that Johnny Weir and Evan Lysachek have both withdrawn, hence the strikethrough.  Also withdrawn are defending pairs champs Denney and Coughlin, but you’ll note that I also colored them red.

Realistically, Denney and Coughlin are a class above the other US pairs teams - the kind of class that places you in the top 8 at worlds. If John Coughlin is able to come back from his hip surgery, i would not be surprised if they are added to the world team, making the two pairs Denney/Coughlin and Castelli/Shnapir.

You’ll note that I also updated my second picks in the mens and ladies events, promoting Ross Miner and Christina Gao (who goes to Harvard), and demoting Max Aaron and Gracie Gold, although I do think that both still have a very good chance to make the world team. I’ve also switched out my third dance team, bumping up Hubbell and Donohue and allowing Chock and Bates to sink to 4th place, based on their respective Grand Prix performances.

In the next two weeks I’ll be posting my predictions by event with a top 5… keep an eye out!